Karyn Mullins
Interim & Fractional COO
How leading indicators, clearer ownership, and better customer intelligence can help teams identify churn risk before revenue is lost.
A customer cancels, the account team is surprised, and leadership wants to know what happened.
In most cases, the customer did not make that decision overnight. Usage may have been declining. Adoption may have stalled. A key contact may have left the company, or the customer may have become less responsive. The information was probably available somewhere, but it was not brought together in a way that made the risk clear. Even when someone noticed the change, there may not have been a defined process or clear owner responsible for acting on it.
That is what I mean by reactive retention. The company does not respond until the risk shows up in a cancellation, non-renewal, support escalation, or quarter-end report. By then, the conversation has shifted from strengthening the customer relationship to trying to save the account.
According to Gainsight, 73% of churned customers never saw value early enough. The problem often begins long before the renewal conversation. If a customer has not adopted the product, received meaningful value, or developed strong relationships with the company, a last-minute discount may delay the decision, but it will not fix the reason the account is at risk.
Reactive retention has several costs:
Most companies do not lack customer data. The problem is that the data is spread across teams and systems, no one has a complete view, and ownership is unclear. Addressing that requires a shared view of the customer, agreement on which signals matter, and a defined process for responding when an account begins to show signs of risk.
Most companies track churn rate, net revenue retention, cancellations, and reasons customers give for leaving. These metrics matter, but they describe something that has already happened.
These are lagging indicators. They are useful for reporting results and identifying trends, but they confirm the outcome after much of the opportunity to influence it has passed.
Leading indicators can help a company see a potential problem earlier. Depending on the business, they may include:
The challenge is rarely a complete lack of information. The challenge is seeing the information together and understanding what it means.
Product may be watching adoption. Account management may be tracking contracts, seat counts, and stakeholder changes. Customer success may be monitoring engagement, support issues, and customer feedback. Each team has part of the information, but no one is responsible for connecting it. One weak signal may not mean much on its own. Several changes happening at the same time can tell a very different story about the health of the account.
When that information is brought together, the company can build a more useful view of account health and give teams time to respond. According to Benchmarkit’s 2025 research, customer health scoring is associated with a 6 to 12 point improvement in net revenue retention.
I have seen this work in practice. In one engagement, we built a behavioral signals model that identified at-risk accounts earlier. It gave the team time to focus on the right customers and contributed to a 56% increase in the renewal rate.
The model was only part of the solution. We also had to determine which customer behaviors mattered, decide what combination of signals indicated real risk, and give the team a clear process for following up. A health score has limited value if no one knows what action should follow it.
Too many companies treat expansion as a separate sales campaign. Someone receives a list of existing customers and is asked to find more revenue, whether or not those customers are receiving enough value to justify the conversation.
The best expansion opportunities usually come from healthy customer relationships. Many of the signals used to identify churn risk can also show when a customer may be ready to grow. Increased usage, broader feature adoption, engagement from several stakeholders, and positive feedback show that the customer is receiving value and may have additional needs the company can address.
Those signals should lead to a relevant conversation, not an automatic upsell message. The account team should understand what the customer is trying to accomplish, what has changed, and whether there are additional ways the company can help.
According to Benchmarkit’s 2025 data, companies with dedicated customer success managers have 25% higher net revenue retention than companies without them. ChartMogul’s H1 2024 benchmarks also found that companies with net revenue retention of at least 100% grew at a median rate of 48% year over year.
Retention and expansion are both tied to the health of the customer relationship. Is the customer receiving value? Are their needs changing? Does the team know enough about the account to respond at the right time? The answers determine whether the company is at risk of losing revenue or has an opportunity to grow it.
Answering those questions requires sales, customer success, account management, product, and support to share information. It also requires clarity around who owns the customer relationship after the sale. Without that alignment, expansion becomes a series of isolated sales attempts and retention becomes a last-minute rescue effort. With it, teams can focus their time where it is most likely to protect or grow revenue.
Knowing the difference between leading and lagging indicators is a start. The more important question is whether your organization has the information, ownership, and processes needed to act on what those indicators show.
I created the Customer Revenue Growth Diagnostic to help companies evaluate their retention and expansion approach across five areas:
The assessment takes a few minutes and helps you identify what is working, where you have gaps, and which areas may need attention first.
Take the Customer Revenue Growth Diagnostic.
https://customerrevenueaccelerator.netlify.app/
FAQ
Here is how I draw the distinction: reactive retention begins when a customer has already shown a clear intention to leave, often through a cancellation, non-renewal, or escalation. Proactive retention uses information such as declining usage, stalled adoption, reduced engagement, or stakeholder turnover to identify risk earlier and give the team time to respond.
I always start by identifying the customer behaviors most closely connected to renewal, churn, and expansion. Bring the relevant information from product, sales, account management, customer success, and support into one view. Then define who is responsible for following up, how quickly the team should respond, and what actions should be taken when an account shows signs of risk or opportunity.
In my experience, retention is often assigned to customer success, while the information needed to understand the account is spread across several teams and systems. Each team may assume someone else is watching the overall relationship. If no one has a complete view of the customer or clear responsibility for acting on the information, warning signs can easily be missed.
This is where leading indicators really stand out: they help teams identify risk and opportunity earlier. Declining engagement may show that a customer needs attention. Increased usage and broader adoption may show that an account is ready for a conversation about additional needs. In both cases, the information helps the team respond based on what the customer is actually doing rather than waiting for a renewal or cancellation decision.
Get the latest insights from TechCXO’s fractional executives—strategies, trends, and advice to drive smarter growth.
A customer cancels, the account team is surprised, and leadership wants to know what happened.
In most cases, the customer did not make that decision overnight. Usage may have been declining. Adoption may have stalled. A key contact may have left the company, or the customer may have become less responsive. The information was probably available somewhere, but it was not brought together in a way that made the risk clear. Even when someone noticed the change, there may not have been a defined process or clear owner responsible for acting on it.
That is what I mean by reactive retention. The company does not respond until the risk shows up in a cancellation, non-renewal, support escalation, or quarter-end report. By then, the conversation has shifted from strengthening the customer relationship to trying to save the account.
According to Gainsight, 73% of churned customers never saw value early enough. The problem often begins long before the renewal conversation. If a customer has not adopted the product, received meaningful value, or developed strong relationships with the company, a last-minute discount may delay the decision, but it will not fix the reason the account is at risk.
Reactive retention has several costs:
Most companies do not lack customer data. The problem is that the data is spread across teams and systems, no one has a complete view, and ownership is unclear. Addressing that requires a shared view of the customer, agreement on which signals matter, and a defined process for responding when an account begins to show signs of risk.
Most companies track churn rate, net revenue retention, cancellations, and reasons customers give for leaving. These metrics matter, but they describe something that has already happened.
These are lagging indicators. They are useful for reporting results and identifying trends, but they confirm the outcome after much of the opportunity to influence it has passed.
Leading indicators can help a company see a potential problem earlier. Depending on the business, they may include:
The challenge is rarely a complete lack of information. The challenge is seeing the information together and understanding what it means.
Product may be watching adoption. Account management may be tracking contracts, seat counts, and stakeholder changes. Customer success may be monitoring engagement, support issues, and customer feedback. Each team has part of the information, but no one is responsible for connecting it. One weak signal may not mean much on its own. Several changes happening at the same time can tell a very different story about the health of the account.
When that information is brought together, the company can build a more useful view of account health and give teams time to respond. According to Benchmarkit’s 2025 research, customer health scoring is associated with a 6 to 12 point improvement in net revenue retention.
I have seen this work in practice. In one engagement, we built a behavioral signals model that identified at-risk accounts earlier. It gave the team time to focus on the right customers and contributed to a 56% increase in the renewal rate.
The model was only part of the solution. We also had to determine which customer behaviors mattered, decide what combination of signals indicated real risk, and give the team a clear process for following up. A health score has limited value if no one knows what action should follow it.
Too many companies treat expansion as a separate sales campaign. Someone receives a list of existing customers and is asked to find more revenue, whether or not those customers are receiving enough value to justify the conversation.
The best expansion opportunities usually come from healthy customer relationships. Many of the signals used to identify churn risk can also show when a customer may be ready to grow. Increased usage, broader feature adoption, engagement from several stakeholders, and positive feedback show that the customer is receiving value and may have additional needs the company can address.
Those signals should lead to a relevant conversation, not an automatic upsell message. The account team should understand what the customer is trying to accomplish, what has changed, and whether there are additional ways the company can help.
According to Benchmarkit’s 2025 data, companies with dedicated customer success managers have 25% higher net revenue retention than companies without them. ChartMogul’s H1 2024 benchmarks also found that companies with net revenue retention of at least 100% grew at a median rate of 48% year over year.
Retention and expansion are both tied to the health of the customer relationship. Is the customer receiving value? Are their needs changing? Does the team know enough about the account to respond at the right time? The answers determine whether the company is at risk of losing revenue or has an opportunity to grow it.
Answering those questions requires sales, customer success, account management, product, and support to share information. It also requires clarity around who owns the customer relationship after the sale. Without that alignment, expansion becomes a series of isolated sales attempts and retention becomes a last-minute rescue effort. With it, teams can focus their time where it is most likely to protect or grow revenue.
Knowing the difference between leading and lagging indicators is a start. The more important question is whether your organization has the information, ownership, and processes needed to act on what those indicators show.
I created the Customer Revenue Growth Diagnostic to help companies evaluate their retention and expansion approach across five areas:
The assessment takes a few minutes and helps you identify what is working, where you have gaps, and which areas may need attention first.
Take the Customer Revenue Growth Diagnostic.
https://customerrevenueaccelerator.netlify.app/
FAQ
Here is how I draw the distinction: reactive retention begins when a customer has already shown a clear intention to leave, often through a cancellation, non-renewal, or escalation. Proactive retention uses information such as declining usage, stalled adoption, reduced engagement, or stakeholder turnover to identify risk earlier and give the team time to respond.
I always start by identifying the customer behaviors most closely connected to renewal, churn, and expansion. Bring the relevant information from product, sales, account management, customer success, and support into one view. Then define who is responsible for following up, how quickly the team should respond, and what actions should be taken when an account shows signs of risk or opportunity.
In my experience, retention is often assigned to customer success, while the information needed to understand the account is spread across several teams and systems. Each team may assume someone else is watching the overall relationship. If no one has a complete view of the customer or clear responsibility for acting on the information, warning signs can easily be missed.
This is where leading indicators really stand out: they help teams identify risk and opportunity earlier. Declining engagement may show that a customer needs attention. Increased usage and broader adoption may show that an account is ready for a conversation about additional needs. In both cases, the information helps the team respond based on what the customer is actually doing rather than waiting for a renewal or cancellation decision.
Get the latest insights from TechCXO’s fractional executives—strategies, trends, and advice to drive smarter growth.