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Forecast and Modeling

Financial Strategy

Forecast and Modeling

  • Finance & Accounting
  • Financial Strategy
  • Forecast and Modeling

Transform Your Financial Potential with Precision Forecasting & Modeling.

Accurate forecasting and effective financial modeling are essential tools for businesses aiming to grow, adapt, and thrive.

Forecasting clarifies where your business is headed, enabling you to anticipate challenges and make informed decisions, while financial modeling equips you with the data-backed scenarios needed to evaluate strategic options and mitigate risks. These critical processes act as a foundation for sustainable growth, ensuring that resources are allocated efficiently and financial outcomes align with your business goals.

Leverage the TechCXO team to help in solving problems and driving solutions across:

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TechCXO Forecast and Modeling Services

Financial forecasts and financial modeling are distinct yet complementary processes that serve vital purposes in business planning and decision-making. Forecasts give you a clear baseline—a forward-looking view grounded in historical data and market trends. They answer the critical question: Where are we headed?

Financial modeling, on the other hand, digs deeper, allowing you to test "what-if" scenarios and assess the ripple effects of decisions before they’re made. For instance, if your forecast predicts a sales increase, a financial model helps you evaluate how that additional revenue impacts cash flow, profit margins, or your ability to support growth.

Together, these tools bring clarity and control to strategic planning. Forecasting sets the direction, while financial modeling gives you the confidence to refine and adapt your approach based on evolving circumstances. With both in hand, startups can transform assumptions into actionable strategies that drive sustainable growth.

To make estimates or predictions more concrete, we'll prepare pro-forma financial statements. These statements are precisely like the financial statements regularly prepared for your business at the end of every period. The only difference is that pro-forma financial statements are prepared for future months or years in advance. They are the prediction of the future’s financial status of your business, thus called forecast.

A financial forecast is created depending on your goals. The financial forecast can cover six months or a longer period of, for example, three years in the future. To do this, we will prepare the three pro-forma financial statements:

  • Income Statement
  • Cash Flow Statement
  • Balance Sheet

For financial modeling, the results may vary, depending on inputs and assumptions. Effective modeling can assist decision making and strategic planning for: Risk Management, Company Valuation, M&A, Option Pricing, Capital Allocation, and Raising Capital.

The chart below shows examples of financial modeling.

  • Projects / Return on Capital

  • Sell or Divest

  • Capital

  • Acquisitions

  • Compare

  • Expand

Projects / Return on Capital

Estimate the costs and forecast the returns and profits for a new project. This may employ:

Three Statement Model

Under this basic model, the three financial statements – income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow – are linked together with formulas in the spreadsheet. Accounts are set up and connected. Inputting a set of assumptions drives the financial model.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model

Using the three statement model, the DCF model evaluates a company based on the NPV (net present value) of the company’s future cash flow. It takes the cash flow financial statement, makes the necessary adjustments, and then uses the discounting function (XNPV function in Excel) to discount them back to the business’ current day’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).

Sell or Divest

Decide whether to sell or divest assets or business units. This may combine a number of models including: 

Merger Model (M&A)

This model is more advanced than the “three statement” and DCF models. It is used to assess the pro forma accretion and dilution of a merger or acquisition. In the spreadsheet, each tab represents a company. The consolidation of all companies results in the “merged company.”

Leveraged Buy-Out Model (LBO)

The LBO model is an advanced form of financial modeling. Since it is very detailed, this model is the most challenging. Multiple layers of financing have circular references and need cash flow waterfalls.

Sum of the Parts Model

This model consolidates various DCF models. Then, there is the addition of business components that may not be suitable for DCF analysis. Marketable securities are not ideal for DCF analysis since they are valued based on the market.

Summing up the parts will result in the Net Asset Value.
Net Asset Value = Value of business unit (A) + Value of business unit (B) + Investments (C) – Liabilities (D)

Consolidation Model

The consolidation model is similar to the “sum of the parts model,” wherein many business units are additions into a single model. In the spreadsheet, each business unit has its tab, and a consolidation tab sums up all business units.

 

Capital

Capital needs and equity calculations around capital may combine any number of models, including: 

Budget Model

This model’s purpose is to create a budget for the future year(s). The budget model is dependent on the income statement and is designed based on monthly or quarterly figures.

Forecasting Model

Users compare the results of the forecasting model and the budget model. They are either combined in one worksheet or separate spreadsheets.

Option Pricing Model

Factors determining the value of an option include current stock price, the intrinsic value, when the option will expire, also known as time value, dividends paid and interest rates. The option pricing model commonly uses complex formulas such as binomial or trinomial trees or the Black-Scholes formula.

Acquisitions

The cost, value and return of potential acquisitions may use any number of models, including but not limited to: 

Three Statement Model

Under this basic model, the three financial statements – income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow – are linked together with formulas in the spreadsheet. Accounts are set up and connected. Inputting a set of assumptions drives the financial model.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model

Using the three statement model, the DCF model evaluates a company based on the NPV (net present value) of the company’s future cash flow. It takes the cash flow financial statement, makes the necessary adjustments, and then uses the discounting function (XNPV function in Excel) to discount them back to the business’ current day’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).

Merger Model (M&A)

This model is more advanced than the “three statement” and DCF models. It is used to assess the pro forma accretion and dilution of a merger or acquisition. In the spreadsheet, each tab represents a company. The consolidation of all companies results in the “merged company.”

Initial Public Offering (IPO)

IPO models are used to value the business before going public in the stock market. It involves comparative company analysis, based on assumptions on how much investors will be willing to pay for the company under assessment. Valuation in this model includes an IPO discount – this will ensure that the stock will trade well even in secondary markets.

Leveraged Buy-Out Model (LBO)

The LBO model is an advanced form of financial modeling. Since it is very detailed, this model is the most challenging. Multiple layers of financing have circular references and need cash flow waterfalls.

Sum of the Parts Model

This model consolidates various DCF models. Then, there is the addition of business components that may not be suitable for DCF analysis. Marketable securities are not ideal for DCF analysis since they are valued based on the market.

Summing up the parts will result in the Net Asset Value.
Net Asset Value = Value of business unit (A) + Value of business unit (B) + Investments (C) – Liabilities (D)

Consolidation Model

The consolidation model is similar to the “sum of the parts model,” wherein many business units are additions into a single model. In the spreadsheet, each business unit has its tab, and a consolidation tab sums up all business units.

Compare

Compare a business’ value against peers in the same industry. This can include Three Statement Models and a variety of valuation models.

Expand

Cost, growth, return for expanding with greater reach or pursuing new markets. This can leverage a combination of models including: 

Budget Model

This model’s purpose is to create a budget for the future year(s). The budget model is dependent on the income statement and is designed based on monthly or quarterly figures.

Forecasting Model

Users compare the results of the forecasting model and the budget model. They are either combined in one worksheet or separate spreadsheets.

Sum of the Parts Model

This model consolidates various DCF models. Then, there is the addition of business components that may not be suitable for DCF analysis. Marketable securities are not ideal for DCF analysis since they are valued based on the market.

Summing up the parts will result in the Net Asset Value.
Net Asset Value = Value of business unit (A) + Value of business unit (B) + Investments (C) – Liabilities (D)

What to Expect

Expertise

TechCXO Finance partners have been involved in financial planning, investment, capital raising and many transactions, both from the sell-side and buy-side. We understand what is important in forecasting and modeling. You can be sure you will be getting expert and actionable advice.

Speed & Capacity

There is little to no learning curve when engaging a TechCXO partner. Each financial pro has led multiple organizations as a C-sute executive and moves quickly to provide unique insights.

Plan of Action

A team of trusted experts will pull together a clear plan of action – driving milestones, identifying risks, and establishing strong communication plans. This takes the onus off of the buy-side team to drive a swift plan of action.

Impact

Clear visibility of financial issues and options

Strategic choices that effectively manage risks and leverage opportunities

Optimized resource allocation and prioritized initiatives

Why choose TechCXO as your Forecast and Modeling Partner?

TechCXO helped pioneer the on demand executive model in 2003 from a simple belief: high-potential companies can benefit from proven part-time and interim executives who they otherwise may not be able to access due to cost, availability, or they didn’t yet need them full time.

We have grown top-line revenue in our own firm every year since our inception due to reputation, referrals, and outstanding work.

We’ve helped more than 7,000 companies -- including billions in capital raises, exits, and transactions -- to date, from startups to Global 1000 companies.

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Our Team

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